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Next season's schedule
 
BuiltForSpeed
Posts: 994
Posted on 2010-10-16 13:44:00
Scrooge McDuck wrote:

Thunk wrote:

Well, actually if you just stuck to either of them, they are both 50% chances as he has just eliminated one from 3, so your 33% chance has gone up to 50% chance either way. I like those odds


No. I could explain why but wikipedia will do a much better job
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem



Its actually 2/3 the chance.
  
TwoPint
Posts: 3613
Posted on 2010-10-16 22:05:46
I tried to warn you.

I've known people with big math/science backgrounds that couldn't wrap their heads around it. The key (at least for me) is that the person making the offer has to know beforehand which door it's behind.

And, yeah...the increase is to 2/3 in that scenario.
  
RsBaby
Posts: 21
Posted on 2010-10-17 3:00:07
weakestlink33 wrote:

Yeah, its 50% for you

Kinda like that scenario where you there is a prize behind 1 of three curtains... You pick a curtain, then they show you that the prize is not behind one of the other 2 curtains and ask you if you want to switch

If you stay with the first curtain, there is still only a 1/3 chance that the prize is behind it

But if you switch to the other one, there is now a 50% chance that its behind that one



Actually, your question isn't all that similar to that scenario... But that one is always fun to discuss because although its really hard to wrap your head around it, it actually is the case (you can test it out in a real experiment with one of your friends and you will find that you only get the prize 1/3 of the time when you don't switch but 50% of the time if you do)




Where does it say here that the person making the offer to switch knows where the prize is? Based on the the limited information we have here then you now have a 50% chance either way. You can not include phsycologigal issues in a problem such as this, probability must always add to 100%, you have two equal options, therefore .......??
  
iMan24
Posts: 2
Posted on 2010-10-17 3:49:22
always switch because you cant make your chances worse. in other words your odds can only get better or stay the same.
  
 
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