Wow...that is a seriously tough question...

What date can Favre's crying counting be extended to? I mean if he doesn't make postseason and does his end of season crying then and its not counted, it could have a big impact on his numbers.

I think the Lions will have more wins.

Here's a similar question. Which RB between Turner and AP will get injured first and which will play more games?

Both way surpassed the "safe" limit of carries (300) into the "danger" zone (370+) with Turner carrying 395 times and AP carrying 384. Almost every player that has ever had that many carries has had greatly decreased output due to injuries or loss of stamina. The players that have gone over 390 carries in a year (14 since 1979) have averaged a 33% decrease in yards the next season and a 11% drop in YPC.

I'm betting on both having very poor years but I think AP will get injured sooner due to him being injury prone already and having two years of heavy workload behind him. Turner will likely break down next year. If you guys have top picks in a draft this year, do your best to avoid these two as well as a few more (listed below):

Tier 1 Risks (390+ carries)
1. Turner - Expected 33% decrease in total yardage.
2. AP - Expected 33% drop

Tier 2 Risks (300+ carries)
3. Portis* - Expected 15% drop in production
4. Forte - Expected 15% drop in production
5. Grant - Expected 15% drop in production

* - Especially high risk since he has had a league leading 642 carries the last two seasons, is aging, and has been bothered by injury regularly already.

My hypothesis: AP will be lucky to be a top 10 RB this year. He will not play more than 12 games. Turner may have a second strong season thanks to being relatively new to a high workload. However all signs point to his good years being behind him if he carries as often this year as he did last year (much like happened to Earl Campbell).

Moral of the story - HANDCUFF AP! Make sure you are the first to pull the trigger on Chester Taylor in Minnesota once AP goes down. He will be just as productive (as he has shown while AP was injured in the past).


Last edited on 2009-08-20 at 3:55

end of season for Farve crying goes through the pro bowl.... Save your good questions for next weeks scientific poll LOL

Well as I said if you take the stats of all players to have eclipsed 390 carries in a season, they average 33% less production overall. Only a few weren't affected. A couple held on for one more heavy year then more or less had their careers ended. The ones listed below averaged a 27% drop in yards and 10% drop in YPC the following year. If you go by cold hard facts, you can predict what will happen when RBs hit 390 carries, 90% of the time these players either peak at this year (or the year after) or have more or less career ending series of injuries.

Terrell Davis (1997): 369 carries, 481 including the postseason. The latter total is an NFL record. Davis was spectacular again in 1998, but that season's total of 392 regular-season carries basically ended his career.

Eddie George (1999): 320 carries, 428 including the postseason. He fell from 4.1 to 3.7 yards per carry in 2000, and after 403 regular-season carries he was never again an effective player.

Curtis Martin (1998): 369 carries, 418 including the postseason. Martin saw no ill effects; 1998 was actually his worst year until 2005.

Thurman Thomas (1993): 355 carries, 418 including the postseason. Thomas continued to play well but never again was able to carry the ball 300 times in a season.

Joe Morris (1986): 341 carries, 414 including the postseason. The following year Morris plummeted from 4.4 to 3.4 yards per carry. By 1989, his career was over due to nerve damage and broken bones in his feet, except for a short-lived comeback with the 1991 Browns.

Jamal Lewis (2000): 309 carries, 412 including the postseason. 103 postseason carries is the third-highest total in history, and Lewis tore his ACL the next year.

Corey Dillon (2005): 345 carries, 410 including the postseason. Fell from 4.7 to 3.5 yards per carry and only managed 12 games due to injuries.

Emmitt Smith (1991): 365 carries, 406 including the postseason. No ill effects.

Ahman Green (2003): 355 carries, 403 including the postseason. Dropped from 5.3 yards per carry in 2003 to 4.5 yards per carry in 2004 and then 3.3 yards per carry in 2005, when he missed 11 games because of injuries.

Earl Campbell (1979): 368 carries, 401 including the postseason. Improved in 1980, when another heavy workload cost him most of his effectiveness in 1981 and beyond.

Natrone Means (1994): 343 carries, 400 including the postseason. Only played 10 games the following year due to injuries, never again played a full season, and retired in 2000 at the age of 28.

Dorsey Levens (1997): 329 carries, 400 including the postseason. Only played seven games in 1998, never again had 100 carries in a season after 1999, didn't average four yards per carry again until 2002.

Curt Warner (1983): 335 carries, 395 including the postseason. Blew out his knee during the first game of 1984 and was out for the season.

Emmitt Smith (1994): 368 carries, 395 including the postseason. Had his best season in 1995, then declined after that.

I take no credit for the data. The rest of the article can be found here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2007/370-carries-revisitedLast edited on 2009-08-20 at 4:13

Perhaps but if you don't learn to trust trends, your fantasy football teams won't be very competitive. A few trends I live by:

1. RBs over 28 are going nowhere but down. TEs at 29, WRs at 30, and QBs at 32 with very few exceptions.
2. 3rd year WRs have a better chance at a good year than at any other time in their career. 2nd year WRs rarely have a good year.
3. On average, top tier contract year players play better than in non-contract years.
4. The future NFL success of rookie QBs taken in rounds 1 or 2 is best determined by looknig at the number of games played in college and their completion percentage.
5. The winning team in a game genrally has less false start penalties.
6. The most significant injury to a football team is at center.
7. A WRs career effectiveness can be determined early on from the percentage of passes thrown to them that they catch.