AudreyForever wrote: Per quanto riguarda lo scudetto, la ressa al vertice della classifica è effettivamente senza precedenti. Dei 4 moschettieri, quello che ha il turno più facile (Liberalmente) è anche il più penalizzato dalla differenza punti. Gli altri 3 sono invece attesi da partite da tripla in schedina che sfuggono a ogni pronostico. Chissà come andrà a finire.

It's nice to have a theoretical shot at the title, but it will be as theoretical as the chances of the New York Giants to win the Super Bowl in the upcoming season.

Let's start with the PD:

Midgets: 158
CMFF: 144
Rhinos: 108
Eacks: 68

I obviously need you, Audrey, to lose at home against Tagliolo. That's possible, of course, we all know what a great team Arrigo has. Consistency was the big topic for him, but his team can beat any team anywhere at any time.

Then I need the Rhinos to win by 7 (or ideally 3 or 1) points against the CMFF. If that game would be in San Siro, that would be entirely possible. I'd fear a higher margin of victory more than a loss. But CMFF is very good at home and has won 6 games in a row. The Rhinos aren't that good (3-5) on the road.

I'm not exactly a master at blowing out other teams. That's why I have this bad PD for a 11-6 team. I need to blow out the Sons. That is possible, of course, but I'd need like a 7 TD differential (49 points) if the Rhinos win by 7. I don't think that will happen. The Sons beat me in our first game. I will now have Home Field Advantage and the Sons are already officially relegated. That helps. But I don't see it. There would have to be a Bot Formation or a development team on the field or an big fail in the lineup to make this happen. And I wouldn't even want that (besides the fail in the lineup, that's a fair game, it sure helped you, Audrey, last week ). As great as the Top Division title would be, I don't want to win it because of a Bot Formation or a developmental squad on the field.

I'd say Midgets and CMFF are the clear favorites to win the title. Especially because the CMFF can even do it without the Midgets losing their game. 14 Points PD isn't that much to overcome. Two last minute TDs in both games could equal that out.

The Rhinos have a solid shot at it, because they (probably) only need a win and a Midgets loss.

I'm far, far down the line when it comes to the chance of winning it.

As a sidenote: if the CMFF win it, there will at least be a german team in the AFLC for the first time in ages (Cup runner up will qualify if the Winner is the Top Division champ). I'm rooting for you, Audrey, in the Iron Bowl, but if I can't win it, I'll root for the German team to go to the AFLC.

Yes I definitely agree with your analysis, Midgets and CMFF are definitely the favourites. I still have a shot, but two away wins against strong teams are a remote possibility

Abbiamo un campione del mondo qui

AudreyForever wrote: Cazzo sì. Finalmente. Stavolta era scritto. Impossibile che perdessi, dopo tutto il casino che era successo per farmi qualificare. Gli Dei di GI erano dalla mia parte e si era già capito. Ero arrivato alla mia decima AFLC, quindi direi che era anche ora. Alla fine la fortuna mi ha restituito tutto quello che in precedenza mi aveva tolto, meglio tardi che mai. Mi dispiace per lo scozzese comunque, perchè aveva messo in piedi una Cinderella Story mica da ridere. Sarà per la prossima volta.