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Attendance
 
newton1412
Posts: 561
Posted on 2012-07-31 13:50:26
Team attendance = Base + (1% * Base per place above last) +/- adjustment for weather +/- adjustment for form.

I have never seen anyone come up with a calculation that quantifies the effect of the weather and form adjustments but they are clearly significant when you examine the attendancies teams acheive.

As an example I'm in Div 3. My base is 42000. I was top prior to my last home game. So 42000 + (42000*10%) = 46200

My actual capacity was 66250. The effect of the weather (sunny) and my form (won previous 7 league games) created an additional attendance of 20050. This might have been even greater with a larger stadium.

As the leagues get more competitive it becomes harder to maintain form. This will lead to lower attendances and start to make oversized stadiums a cash drain. As such I'm not planning on building again. At least not until I reach the AFLC

  
Hard-core fan (ultimate supporter owner)pfletchGI Supporter
Posts: 121
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Posted on 2012-07-31 14:45:51
Ok I can see what I was missing - team position and team form, I had in the same breath..........

So no way of knowing what sort of increase percentage wise it is per win ?
  
newton1412
Posts: 561
Posted on 2012-07-31 19:38:29
pfletch wrote:

Ok I can see what I was missing - team position and team form, I had in the same breath..........

So no way of knowing what sort of increase percentage wise it is per win ?



Nothing that I have been able to work out. At the start of the season form resets to zero though so you can see the effect building week on week. The weather further complicates it as well. I still think as one of the early posters said that you are better of with a 60-80k stadium. Anything more is a bit inefficient.
  
SrednaDGI Supporter
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Posted on 2012-07-31 20:24:36
I get my 50k stadium sold out and I am forth in the IV league. But if I loose a game, attendance goes down to around 45.000.
  

"Quarterbacks should wear a dress." - Jack Lambert

If you are ever feeling down, just know that neither of Dorfenschmirtz's parents showed up to his birth.

Gatr22GI Supporter
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Posted on 2012-07-31 22:53:45
newton1412 wrote:



I have never seen anyone come up with a calculation that quantifies the effect of the weather and form adjustments but they are clearly significant when you examine the attendancies teams acheive.




Form adjustment is the one that you have to use some games to try and figure out and the weather makes it tough to calculate, but once you figure the weather adjustment, a little bit of math will allow you to figure out the form. From the FAQ:

1. Attendance is influenced by the weather.
- Sunny weather has no influence on the attendance. All the people that would show up normally will come.
- Rainy weather means that there will be 5% less people that would otherwise want to go to the game.
- Stormy weather means that there will be 10% less people that would otherwise want to go to the game.
- Snowy weather means that there will be 15% less people that would otherwise want to go to the game.

2. The match itself is also influenced by the weather (explained in the match engine explanation below)

With that said, you will see my team as performing this season and if you care to run some numbers, you can deduce the form rise. Just remember that form gains even at away league games when you win, so you may have to divide by a slight factor when you have back to back away games to figure the form change:

Total capacity: 81,550
league record 1-0, sunny, 57,667
league record 3-0, stormy, 54,324
league record 5-0, stormy, 66,334
league record 8-0, sunny, 81,550

for cup matches, which I think also take into account opponent record:
league record 4-0, rainy, cup game, 65,837
league record 6-0, sunny, cup game, 81,550


It's been 81,550 since both those points, when I lose a game, I will repost the following home game results. As a starting point, you can see that at 1-0, with sunny weather (so all fans show up), I was drawing just over 70% capacity, 23,883 fans didn't show up. At 3-0, with stormy weather, you immediately lose 10% fan base, so that's a loss of 8155 fans. Once you deduct this 10% loss, it shows that 4812 more fans actually showed up, even though it clearly shows I had less fans than the first home game (due to stormy weather loss). So had it been sunny weather, I would have expected an attendance of 62,479. This represents a gain in 2 games of about 6%. So perhaps form increases 1%, 3%, 6%, etc, or something along those lines. Feel free to run some numbers if you like
  

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Hard-core fan (ultimate supporter owner)pfletchGI Supporter
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Posted on 2012-08-01 1:00:14
Woh - thats mega informative thanks

The placing above last is minimal, but form plays a huge part then....

But you need to be winning regularly to get those increases you illustrate, I presume if you lose as many as you win - as in end up 9-9 then each loss cancels out each win

Thanks though
  
 
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